Review of James Alfred Loader, Proverbs 1–9: historical commentary on the Old Testament, Leuven: Peeters, 2014.

In Hommes, Nusse, and Simonovits (1990) the dynamics of a simple economic model was studied. Although this piecewise linear model is quite simple, its dynamics shows different kinds of behavior such as periodic, quasiperiodic, and chaotic behavior. In particular, a new kind of bifurcation, namely a period three to period two bifurcation, was observed numerically. This paper deals with this new bifurcation phenomenon and we show that the “period three to period two” bifurcation occurs and is a structurally stable phenomenon in a class of two-dimensional continuous, piecewise linear systems. In particular, the “period three to period two” bifurcation is a structurally stable phenomenon in economic models with Hicksian nonlinearitie

Strategies used as spectroscopy of financial markets reveal new stylized facts

We propose a new set of stylized facts quantifying the structure of financial markets. The key idea is to study the combined structure of both investment strategies and prices in order to open a qualitatively new level of understanding of financial and economic markets. We study the detailed order flow on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China for the whole year of 2003. This enormous dataset allows us to compare (i) a closed national market (A-shares) with an international market (B-shares), (ii) individuals and institutions and (iii) real investors to random strategies with respect to timing that share otherwise all other characteristics. We find that more trading results in smaller net return due to trading frictions. We unveiled quantitative power laws with non-trivial exponents, that quantify the deterioration of performance with frequency and with holding period of the strategies used by investors. Random strategies are found to perform much better than real ones, both for winners and losers. Surprising large arbitrage opportunities exist, especially when using zero-intelligence strategies. This is a diagnostic of possible inefficiencies of these financial markets.Comment: 13 pages including 5 figures and 1 tabl

Quantifying trading behavior in financial markets using Google Trends

Crises in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Detailed market data on trading decisions reflect some of the complex human behavior that has led to these crises. We suggest that massive new data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the behavior of market participants in periods of large market movements. By analyzing changes in Google query volumes for search terms related to finance, we find patterns that may be interpreted as “early warning signs” of stock market moves. Our results illustrate the potential that combining extensive behavioral data sets offers for a better understanding of collective human behavior

Quantifying the behavior of stock correlations under market stress

Understanding correlations in complex systems is crucial in the face of turbulence, such as the ongoing financial crisis. However, in complex systems, such as financial systems, correlations are not constant but instead vary in time. Here we address the question of quantifying state-dependent correlations in stock markets. Reliable estimates of correlations are absolutely necessary to protect a portfolio. We analyze 72 years of daily closing prices of the 30 stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We find the striking result that the average correlation among these stocks scales linearly with market stress reflected by normalized DJIA index returns on various time scales. Consequently, the diversification effect which should protect a portfolio melts away in times of market losses, just when it would most urgently be needed. Our empirical analysis is consistent with the interesting possibility that one could anticipate diversification breakdowns, guiding the design of protected portfolios

Extracts of Feijoa Inhibit Toll-Like Receptor 2 Signaling and Activate Autophagy Implicating a Role in Dietary Control of IBD

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a heterogeneous chronic inflammatory disease affecting the gut with limited treatment success for its sufferers. This suggests the need for better understanding of the different subtypes of the disease as well as nutritional interventions to compliment current treatments. In this study we assess the ability of a hydrophilic feijoa fraction (F3) to modulate autophagy a process known to regulate inflammation, via TLR2 using IBD cell lines

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30

© 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. By testing a simple asset pricing model of heterogeneous agents to characterize the power-law behavior of the DAX 30 from 1975 to 2007, we provide supporting evidence on empirical findings that investors and fund managers use combinations of fixed and switching strategies based on fundamental and technical analysis when making investment decisions. A mechanism analysis based on the calibrated model provides a behavioral insight into the explanatory power of rational switching behavior of investors on the volatility clustering and long range dependence in return volatility

Cyclic game dynamics driven by iterated reasoning

Recent theories from complexity science argue that complex dynamics are ubiquitous in social and economic systems. These claims emerge from the analysis of individually simple agents whose collective behavior is surprisingly complicated. However, economists have argued that iterated reasoning--what you think I think you think--will suppress complex dynamics by stabilizing or accelerating convergence to Nash equilibrium. We report stable and efficient periodic behavior in human groups playing the Mod Game, a multi-player game similar to Rock-Paper-Scissors. The game rewards subjects for thinking exactly one step ahead of others in their group. Groups that play this game exhibit cycles that are inconsistent with any fixed-point solution concept. These cycles are driven by a "hopping" behavior that is consistent with other accounts of iterated reasoning: agents are constrained to about two steps of iterated reasoning and learn an additional one-half step with each session. If higher-order reasoning can be complicit in complex emergent dynamics, then cyclic and chaotic patterns may be endogenous features of real-world social and economic systems.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, and supplementary informatio

Proliferative and anti-proliferative effects of dietary levels of phytoestrogens in rat pituitary GH3/B6/F10 cells - the involvement of rapidly activated kinases and caspases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Phytoestogens are a group of lipophillic plant compounds that can have estrogenic effects in animals; both tumorigenic and anti-tumorigenic effects have been reported. Prolactin-secreting adenomas are the most prevalent form of pituitary tumors in humans and have been linked to estrogen exposures. We examined the proliferative effects of phytoestrogens on a rat pituitary tumor cell line, GH₃/B₆/F₁₀, originally subcloned from GH₃cells based on its ability to express high levels of the membrane estrogen receptor-α.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We measured the proliferative effects of these phytoestrogens using crystal violet staining, the activation of several mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) and their downstream targets via a quantitative plate immunoassay, and caspase enzymatic activities.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Four phytoestrogens (coumestrol, daidzein, genistein, and <it>trans</it>-resveratrol) were studied over wide concentration ranges. Except <it>trans</it>-resveratrol, all phytoestrogens increased GH₃/B₆/F₁₀cell proliferation at some concentration relevant to dietary levels. All four phytoestrogens attenuated the proliferative effects of estradiol when administered simultaneously. All phytoestrogens elicited MAPK and downstream target activations, but with time course patterns that often differed from that of estradiol and each other. Using selective antagonists, we determined that MAPKs play a role in the ability of these phytoestrogens to elicit these responses. In addition, except for <it>trans</it>-resveratrol, a serum removal-induced extrinsic apoptotic pathway was blocked by these phytoestrogens.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Phytoestrogens can block physiological estrogen-induced tumor cell growth <it>in vitro </it>and can also stimulate growth at high dietary concentrations in the absence of endogenous estrogens; these actions are correlated with slightly different signaling response patterns. Consumption of these compounds should be considered in strategies to control endocrine tumor cell growth, such as in the pituitary.</p